Having stepped into the dangerous labyrinth of political predictions, where being correct does not guarantee recognition and being wrong guarantees obscurity, previous predictions of the political atmosphere prompt an examination of the direction of U.S. politics and the economy.
To gather thoughts and provide entry points for further expositions, reviews of statements from previous articles are helpful.
The Soviet Union proved to be Hitler’s downfall. After a rush of successes inflated Hitler’s ego, he refused to recognize that his forces had entered a territory of too many people ready to die to protect their land, and, in an endless war, his resources were more likely to be exhausted. Iran is Trump’s demise. Trump, unlike Hitler, has realized the situation; he lost a war, and history will remember him as a loser. His one last hope is for the mid-term elections to resurrect him; a loss of a vast number of House and Senate seats will be fatal ─ MAGA desertion will be complete, and Republican Party officials will no longer fawn at his utterances. He could even be impeached.
Post-election surveys have emphasized that conducting the war with Iran, as Israel’s lackey, and the failure to conclude it, was a major contribution to the Republican defeat. The loss of a vast number of House and Senate seats, more than polls had predicted, purged Congress of Trump’s toadies and left him with a highly reduced MAGA base to accede to his commands. Rats desert a sinking ship, and this ship is barely floating. If Trump does not become de-Trumpanized, and continues his self-aggrandizing and corrupt procedures, efforts to remove him could occur.
At first, it appeared that Trump, considering his waning health, had become tired of dictating and tired of defending. Wouldn’t he be glad to claim victory, expound how he reshaped the appearance of Washington, D.C., brought peace to the Middle East, halted Iran in its nuclear developments, reformed immigration, gave America back to Americans, and engineered the best economy in the history of the world? He could slowly disappear and even abdicate before finishing his term. No worries for him; by his measure, he did great and is not responsible for “après moi, le deluge (after me, the deluge).
Appointment of Stephan Miller as chief-of-staff interrupts rational thinking. The Oval Office is no longer a reception area; it is now a bunker, a place for Trump and his cohorts to hunker down. Entry is allowed to a few team members. What bag of tricks and evil endeavors are being considered to counter those who will contend the king’s rule? Trump is not going down scalded; he is going down in flames, and he intends to take the whole country with him. However, he cannot. The forces aligned against him are too great. The sycophants that inhabit the government bureaucracy go where the power rests. Power no longer rests with Donald Trump.
In examining his fall from command of the universe to obedient servant, Trump will need a “fall guy,” the culprit who did him in. Well, he has it in the persona of Benjamin Netanyahu, and he will have his revenge. It’s sneaking up on him slowly ─ Netanyahu brought him into the war ─ and when it begins to consume him, watch out Israel.
There is no stopping the political tide that is turning against Israel. Trump will use it to his advantage, portraying Israel as a betrayal, as unwilling to follow his recommendations, as causing its own downfall. He started the condemnation by informing everyone that the $3-$4 billion aid package to Israel will expire on December 31. More pressure on Israel will follow — economic, political, diplomatic, and social. Questions arise ─ what will the pressure accomplish? Will Israeli forces leave Gaza and Lebanon? Maybe the oppression in the West Bank will lessen, and settlements will be slowed. However, will the fundamentals that guide Israel’s oppression, apartheid, and genocide be changed? Can they be changed without radically changing Israel’s government, Zionist pursuits, and Israel’s siege mentality? Expect the Spartan spirit to be strengthened until the pressure forces a government to re-examine its drastic policies. Complete resolution is not feasible. This Israel will never completely leave Lebanon and Gaza, never completely stop the settlements, and never completely permit the Palestinians to live in peace. For Israel, it will always be all or nothing. The world should assist in Israel becoming nothing.
The Republicans have only two choices for a nominee — Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The Secretary of State has strengthened his appearance, but still has a ” schoolboy” image, which, together with his close relation to AIPAC and devotion to apartheid Israel, gives him few votes. J.D. Vance’s experience as a Senator and Vice President appeals to voters. He has the advantage of replacing a fading Donald Trump in the next two years, and will use that advantage to promote himself.
JD Vance quickly stepped in and made himself the face and voice of the Republican Party. There is nobody else now, in the immediate future, and in the next presidential election. Rubio has heavy baggage; he owes his existence to AIPAC and cannot deny AIPAC. Expect Rubio to fade, with one provision: if a Supreme Court Justice resigns, he will receive that post.
The short experiment with self-aggrandizing tyranny is coming to an end. Polls predict a massive Democratic sweep in the midterms, which should carry into the next presidential election. Those associated with the disgraced Trump administration will not be able to be nominated- who else is there? Doubtful any of them can get elected. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshar is a likely future president of the United States of America. If so, what happens to Senator Van Hollen? Next Secretary of State?
Georgian Senator Jon Ossoff has gained recognition as a leading contender in the next Democratic presidential primary. His opportunity comes at an inopportune time. Suspicions of Jewish roles in controlling media, manipulating opinion, financing elections, and shaping government, right or wrong, have entered the American psyche and are bound to grow. Ossoff will take the high road and refrain from being involved in responding to charges emerging from the suspicions. The vice-presidential position will suit him and the public ─ the combination of an executive governor for president and a legislative senator for vice-president has been a winning ticket in American politics. Merging an executive, immune from national dislike, with a legislator who always has detractors, but is placed in a secondary position, fits well in a national campaign.
Senator Chris Van Hollen has placed himself to become the Secretary of State in the next Democratic administration. Similar to JD Vance, he seized the opportunity and made himself the face and voice of a new Democratic Party. Van Hollen “called on his party to commit to a ‘bold agenda’ targeting powerful corporate interests before lawmakers decide whether to support Chuck Schumer or another candidate for Senate Democratic leader.” The Maryland Senator bridges the gap between the extreme wings of the Democratic Party. He is the conciliating force and, in that position, will earn respect from all Democratic senators.
Because the Senate does not contain a preponderance of newly elected Democratic Senators, Chuck Schumer is still the prominent candidate for Senate Majority Leader, but might be shamed into rejecting the office. There will be opposition to Hakeem Jeffries becoming House Speaker. Jeffries showed nothing but a smile, empty words, and excessive support from pro- Israel groups during his reign as House Minority Leader. The large number of newly elected representatives might insist on a new face and a person who has not been involved with Israel’s supporters.
The reinvigorated Democratic Party will face a challenge in gaining consensus from representatives of highly divergent views. The depressed Republicans will face a challenge in getting anything done. What can be expected? Until Miller was chosen as the blocking back to a stumbling runner, the goal scores could be calculated. When someone is running amok, it is difficult to estimate where any team will end. Trump has the veto, and the Dems don’t have sufficient legislators to overcome the veto.
Foreign Policy
In all the ‘flashpoints’ — Iran, Ukraine, and Yemen — the administration has no choice but to disengage and let others resolve the problems. It is doubtful that the others can solve the problems, which means they will continue.
Domestic Policy
New social legislation. Veto. New social legislation. Veto. New so………….
Economy
High interest rates, unrelenting government deficits, shrinking workforce, high energy prices, still high trade deficit, and transition to an economy ruled by a new technology (AI) create uncertainty and urge a pause to regain stability. A period of stagflation is most likely.
Defense
Who needs it? War is hopefully passé. One issue where the Dems will succeed is defense appropriations. They will cut appropriations.
The long nightmare of the embarrassing Trump administration is not over. The election steered the United States toward a new direction. Those elected were those who presented new policies, a shift from standard rhetoric to imaginative proposals, a shift from aged, tired, and corrupt faces to youthful, refreshing, and credible people who eloquently presented themselves to the public. Real problems will be faced with real solutions. Will the solutions be effective, and will the problems be resolved? Not until Trump disappears, and that could happen. For his removal, the process will need a dozen approvals from the Republican Senators and about 40 agreements from Republican representatives. The election removed Trump supporters from office and prevented others from gaining office. Those who did not run and remained have to be tested in their loyalty to a figure that has been discarded by 70 percent of the American electorate. It is a no-brainer.
From today, the Democrats should surreptitiously determine the number of Republican legislators agreeable to Trump’s removal. It may be all of them. Presidential hopefuls realize they have no chance if they do not separate themselves from Trump. Representatives realize that even if Trump is removed, the Republicans still control the Executive office and veto power. They don’t need him. Those running again, and those who fear that staying with a vengeful Trump will hinder the GOP in the next presidential election, will give him an offer he cannot refuse. If he refuses, the day Congress knows it has the votes for impeachment and removal, have Senator Lisa Murkowski knock on the door of the Oval Office and deliver the gracious note to the obstinate Trump.
Will Trump allow himself to become an apprentice and be known as the only president FIRED? Trump is doomed; afterwards, the Democrats can make America great again.