The stupidity of it all could be a daily column, mushrooming into a book, and then into a series that clogs library shelves. Each day batters our senses with insensible remarks, debatable stories, and drastic policies from the delegated powerful, those who tell us how wonderfully we live and why we should cherish the freedoms that bind us all. The policies that engage the U.S. with Iran and Russia have proved worthless, knocking a fist against a glass wall, slightly breaking the wall, and suffering a bleeding cut. Initiating them has not been smart; continuing them is “just plain stupid.” Why go nowhere when you can arrive somewhere?
The United States has continually imposed activity restrictions and sanctions on the Islamic Republic. They began in November 1979, when President Jimmy Carter froze $12 billion in Iranian assets and banned Iranian imports in response to students capturing the U.S. embassy in Tehran and taking U.S. diplomats hostage. The sanctions are cited as crippling the Iranian economy and acting as a catalyst to weaken the regime. After 56 years of sanctions, the economy has been crippled, and so have the people. The regime remains strongly in power. Now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced plans for new sanctions, which are intended to isolate Iran further and will undoubtedly draw Iran closer to the BRICS nations. Of what benefit are sanctions, except to make Iranians suffer more?
Recently on PBS NewsHour, David Brooks condemned Abdul el-Sayed by saying, “When asked if Iran or Israel was the greatest threat, Abdul el-Sayed, Democratic contender for Michigan Senator, could not tell the difference.” Word for word, Brooks repeated the macro assertions: “Iran is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans and is the number one sponsor of world terrorism.” Nobody asked Brooks for evidence to certify his remarks, which appear almost daily in the press. They are never refuted.
Except for the possibility that Iran has supplied some drones to the Sudanese military and is aiding the Houthis in attacks on Saudi Arabia, which has interfered and exerted influence in the Yemen civil war, what makes Iran a threat to others? Threats to Israel and the Gulf nations have occurred due to attacks on Iran, a natural result of a war in which housing military bases of an enemy is an acceptable target. Brooks should be questioned about Israel, which has not only threatened others; it has waged war almost constantly from 1948 until today, wars against Iran, Palestinians, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Iran has not invaded or massively attacked any nation in the last 225 years of its history.
Deaths of Americans attributed to Iran are a deliberate exaggeration of spurious and unproven directives by Iran to groups that bombed U.S. installations in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. The assertion that the Iranians supplied Iraqis with EFPs ─ advanced, armor-piercing roadside bombs, which pierced heavily armored vehicles and tanks and killed and maimed U.S. military ─ is never contended.
The Columbia School of Journalism, Get the Facts Straight on Iran and EFPs, When is an Iranian bomb not an Iranian bomb? When it’s made in Iraq, April 10, 2007, by Paul McLeary, tells a different story, and supplies proof.
Just last week, the New York Times reported that in the town of Diwaniya, “American and Iraqi forces uncovered an assembly area for the powerful roadside bombs known as explosively formed projectiles, the statement said. Four bombs were already assembled, it added, and others were in various stages of being put together.”
What’s more, in February Andrew Cockburn wrote in the Los Angeles Times that back in November, “U.S. troops raiding a Baghdad machine shop came across a pile of copper disks, 5 inches in diameter, stamped out as part of what was clearly an ongoing order. This ominous discovery, unreported until now, makes it clear that Iraqi insurgents have no need to rely on Iran as the source of EFPs.”
And that’s not all. The Wall Street Journal reported in February that another EFP “factory” was discovered in southern Iraq, and around the same time the New York Times threw some water on the U.S. military’s claims that the bombs were coming exclusively from Iran, when a cache of EFP materials was found in Baghdad–all marked with stamps from countries around the Middle East, but not Iran.
Would not be surprised if the materials came from Israel. The disproven statement, “Iran is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans,” is calmly portrayed as fact. The other statement, “Iran is the number one sponsor of world terrorism,” has no credibility. Can anyone supply information on Iran’s sponsorship of international terrorism? Please do not include Iran’s responses to terror groups that have inflicted damage within Iran’s borders, including Israel’s Mossad, and Iran’s assistance to Resistance militias, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, which are local activities and not related to ‘world terrorism.’
The reason for the attacks on Iran that included killing school children, waves and shakes in the breeze, and returns to one justification — preventing Iran from developing atomic bombs that could nuke Los Angeles and San Francisco. An indeterminate time away from gaining fissionable material, plus an indeterminate time away from turning processed uranium into an atomic bomb, plus an indeterminate time away from testing a bomb, plus an indeterminate time away from obtaining a missile that can carry the bomb, plus no means, except possibly by submarine, to deliver the bomb to mainland America, and we have to fear that tomorrow the Mullahs will nuke America. Never asking, why would they do that when knowing their ancient civilization will be destroyed the next day?
Policies shaped by ignorance and committing disaster upon disaster. Where will the disaster end? It won’t. Expect an American super bomb dropped upon an Iranian mountaintop, a coda to the symphony of blasts, followed by a chorus of sanctions. The orchestra leader lowers the baton, and the echo chamber keeps the symphony playing. The Iranian leadership hears nothing, and the Iranian people continue their struggle for survival. From the ruins of war and adversity thrust upon them, the Iranian nation, rich in resources and populated with a knowledgeable and resourceful people, will seek allies and forge a highly industrialized and powerful nation that will surprise the world.
After decades of inner turmoil, a ten-year war with Iraq, violent quarrels with a restless population, constantly fighting insurgencies and terrorism from minority ethnicities, defending against aggression from the world’s powerful nations, and the loss of its entire leadership, Iran is still the Islamic Republic, ruled by Mullahs. If there is a straw that breaks this camel’s back, it is yet to be harvested. The Islamic Republic cannot be changed; it can only evolve, and its evolution is the path to a less Islamic nation. As its people become more prosperous, move away from restricted village life, and gain more control of their lives, they will become freer to think, freer to choose, less accepting of dogma, more accepting of universal ideals, less capable of being restrained, and more capable of acting independently. The Iranian people are socialized, and the original intent in overthrowing the Shah was to socialize the economy. That intent has not been destroyed; the Islamists have been an impediment, and they realize it. They will gradually admit defeat, and Iranian civilization will emerge again.
Similar to sanctions on Iran, destined to bring down the regime, sanctions on Russia are destined to either bring down the regime or force it to seek peace. Recently, EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, offered a new sanctions package against Russia, which will target the country’s financial system, energy sector, and military industry. Statistics relate the sanctions story; a fable meant for children.
Russia GDP/PPP $Trillions
Since 2014, when the first sanctions came into effect, and even after 2022, when a fourth round of sanctions was announced, the Russian GDP/PPP may have slowed but steadily progressed. Russia maintained its position as the fourth-largest GDP/PPP, behind India and slightly ahead of Japan.
Sanctions greatly affected the Iranian Rial, reducing it to almost nothing. Not so with the Ruble, which had a few ups and downs and remains settled at its 2022 rate, indicating that inflation and commodity prices are not a major problem for the Russian economy.
Putin remains in power, and Zelensky barely hangs on. Russians feel a sting and Ukrainians feel a shattering blow. Sanctions have not prevented one casuality and have not affected the course of the war. For Ukraine, the outlook is grim. Trump has withdrawn support for Ukraine and is siding with Putin. An erratic Trump might lessen support for Putin but will not commit to Zelensky. Ukraine will face reality, replace Zelensky, and seek a truce that will effectively award Donbas to Russia. If Putin remains in power, the truce will not end the conflict.
The Russian leader is driven by a resolve to leave his name in history as the leader who brought Russia to its rightful borders, who united all Russians, and corrected the errors made by Boris Yeltsin, his benefactor. It has become his obsession, and he cannot escape from the dream. Putin will eventually demand more of Ukraine — Odesa, Kharkiv, and maybe Kyiv, tending to split Ukraine between Catholic and Orthodox ethnicities. That result is unpredictable, as are all nightmare scenarios.