I don’t let polls determine my beliefs or actions, but when it comes to US elections, my experience is that, generally speaking, it is important to follow them. Although some polls are significantly non-objective with a decided tilt one way or the other, most of the ones that haven’t popped up during this Trump era, which are clearly Republican-leaning, are pretty objective.
What do recent polls say about macro political trends in the USA, and what does it look like with about 3 ½ months until the November 3 Big Election Day?
Here are the main takeaways from my recent research. This information comes from polls conducted by Data for Progress, Quantas Insights, CNN, NBC, and The Economist/YouGov over the last month and a half.
-Bernie Sanders has a very high rating, probably the highest for any known politician nationally right now. AI Overview reports “46% viewing him favorably compared to 36% unfavorably. Trump’s net favorability is between minus 7 and minus 16, with job approval ratings dipping further.”
Given Bernie’s national visibility and leadership right now in support of progressive candidates, and a massive voter turnout in November, this is hugely important.
-As far as what are considered “swing voters,” according to a recent Data for Progress poll, they are for Dems over Reps by 33-21%, with 46% undecided. That is a lot of “undecideds,” and underlines the importance of serious campaigning leading up to November 3.
-According to a CNN poll a month and a half ago, 47% of voters consider themselves “independent” or “no opinion.” D’s and R’s are virtually tied, 26% for R’s and 27% for D’s. However, a recent NBC poll found that independents want Democrats to control Congress by a margin of 46-34%. Also, an Economist/YouGov poll at the end of June reported that D’s have a net favorability rating of 33%, nine points higher than R’s 24%.
-Finally, a July 7 article in the Christian Science Monitor has reported that: “A recent YouGov poll found 71% of Republicans viewed socialism unfavorably. Among independents, though, just 34% held unfavorable views of socialism, while 30% held favorable views. Asked whether they would ever vote for a democratic socialist candidate, 24% of independents said they would, compared with 3% of Republicans and 62% of Democrats.”
Clearly, all of this data indicates that the political project of the Trumpfascists is failing. Their extreme, racist, and regressive positions and actions on issue after issue have led to falling poll numbers and a very real possibility that they will lose control of not just the House of Representatives but the Senate this fall, if the pro-democracy movement keeps at it and does what we are called to do.
That is why the Trump regime is upping its repressive moves on a number of fronts. They clearly have every intention of doing what they think will intimidate Democratic, Independent, and progressive voters, but every indication is they are doing just the opposite. And, significantly, they are losing far more in the courts, particularly at the local level, than they are winning in election challenges.
Who knows what they will try to pull off in the next 100 or so days? Whatever it is, I believe that they will fail. I believe that we will win, and not just these November elections. The political trends in the USA are clearly away from repressive and pro-billionaire domination and towards something very different, something which will give our children and grandchildren hope for a better future. Each of us individually has to keep at it and keep rising to resist whatever they try to do.
It is only our resistance, many millions of us, in all kinds of ways, who have prevented a fascist takeover so far. There is now a clear light at the end of this tunnel because of it. Sí, se puede!