It would be strategically wise for Iran not to wait longer to retaliate against Israel’s continuing gross violations of the truce on the Lebanese and Palestinian fronts of the war that was initiated by Israel and the US in Southwest Asia, AKA the Middle East. Iran warned the US on April 8th that the truce – agreed the day before – applied equally to all fronts or none, not just Iran, and that they and their allies in the Axis of Resistance (Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and Yemen) would respond collectively, immediately, and in force along all fronts. Israel’s current massive violations in southern Lebanon and Palestine would clearly justify taking such action.
Of course, it is up to Iran and the Axis whether to respond only to Israel or to the US, as well. They are justified either way, but it would not be out of character for them to target only the source of the violations and the theater in which they occur.
Nevertheless, the US is likely to join in almost immediately, and from Iran’s point of view, this is not necessarily a disadvantage. If the war with the Americans must be fought, it might be better to do so before the US military deploys additional assets. Delay only shifts the military advantage toward Israel and the US, though probably affecting the material and human cost more than the outcome.
That outcome will be death and destruction, but the sooner the battle commences – at least among the Mediterranean combatants – the less of it is likely to take place on the Lebanese side of the border, and more on the Israeli side, potentially incapacitating Israel’s longer-term capacity for aggression and expansion. This would be a reprise of 2000 and 2006, when the Israelis were definitively expelled from Lebanon, with the exception of the small Shebaa Farms area. It would not be surprising if this also reduced Israel’s ability to wreak havoc in Gaza.
Obviously, such an attack on Israel will cause an end to the current pause in the US war with Iran. Nevertheless, from Iran’s viewpoint, it might be better for this to happen on Iran’s timetable than on America’s. Already, the extensions to the truce have allowed a third US aircraft carrier group to arrive in the region. Further assets, such as the 82nd Airborne Division of US troops, are scheduled for deployment. Why would Iran wait if resumption of hostilities is inevitable?
Of course, the war will eventually end, most likely with the US withdrawing within weeks or months. Iran’s civilian infrastructure will be heavily damaged, and many lives will be lost, but such war crimes will go unpunished. US sanctions will continue unabated for the indefinite future, while Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz and realize enough income to compensate for much of their losses. Will they choose to build and test a nuclear device? Hard to say, but who would blame them? And if they do it soon enough, the war might not have to resume at all.