What They Aren’t Telling You about the Ceasefire With Iran

• The ceasefire plan with Iran, if it holds, will get things (somewhat) back to the way they were before Donald Trump took a chainsaw to the world order. (Except of course all the people who were murdered will not come back.) If you hadn’t noticed, this is a theme for Trump.
  • 1. He does something utterly unhinged, insane, chaotic and stupid.
  • 2. He tries to get something he wants — like control of Iran, control of Greenland, or a subservient trade deal from China.
  • 3. He realizes he’s screwed and can’t get the thing he wants.
  • 4. He declares victory and everything (almost) goes back to the way it was before he set fire to everything.
• This is very similar to Trump’s trade war with China in 2025. He threatened 145% tariffs. He tried to get China to bow down and do his bidding. China used its ace card — withholding refined rare earth minerals — and Trump suddenly agreed to a new trade deal with them. Of course he ran around claiming victory, but if you actually look at what’s in the deal, it was nearly identical to the way things already were when Trump started his second term. So he gained nothing.
• The 10-point ceasefire plan Trump claimed Iran just offered at the 11th hour was actually on the table for weeks. Trump just needed an escape from the horrific war escalation that he had created, so he pretended the offer was suddenly brought to him. Nothing screams “We lost!” like agreeing to a plan you had said for weeks was not good enough.
• Even though Trump is saying he found the plan agreeable, there are several points that the US would likely never actually do — such as removing all US military from the Middle East.
• Israel has already violated the ceasefire plan because they committed some of their largest attacks on Lebanon yet even though the plan called for all attacks on Lebanon to end. Trump is trying to claim the “skirmish” between Israel and Lebanon is separate from the “skirmish” between the US and Iran. But Iran says that’s not the case and that they will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues their attacks.
• You may think the US economy is about to get better because this war is (kinda) over. But that’s not true. The oil shock has actually not yet hit the US, Canada, Europe, and much of the world. Oil tankers make their way around the world at about 11 to 15 mph. Does that sound slow? That’s because it’s slow. It’s about the rate of a rather slow bike ride. This means the month-long lack of oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet hit the US and much of the world. That lack of oil is slowly heading our way like a tsunami while many Asian countries have already been hit.
• It’s not just oil. It’s also everything that comes from oil and the production of oil — such as helium, plastics, and fertilizer. Basically a lot of the stuff our modern society runs on.
• Even if the ceasefire proves permanent and stable, it will take months for Middle East oil to begin pumping again. This means the oil shock that hasn’t hit the West yet will not just be one month’s worth of shock — it will be several months of shock.

This article was posted on Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 at 4:23pm and is filed under Iran, United States, War.