No one knows whether the ceasefire will hold but we do know a few things. First, Trump realized the war could not continue, even though none of his goals had been achieved. The war was both a personal humiliation for Trump and also an abject failure for the U.S. and Israel. It was the U.S., not Iran, that was begging for the ceasefire. And not to be left out, Jeffrey Sachs observes that “Trump exposed himself as a psychopath.”
Second, there is at least the opportunity to prevent this from occurring again as it will be difficult for the U.S. to resume the war. Scott Ritter comments that Trump “will not let Netanyahu con him again.” It’s unclear to me why Iran agreed to a ceasefire but there’s speculation that China exerted pressure on Tehran to do so. If I’m correct,China buys some 90% of Iran’s oil.
Third, the Iranian regime is stronger today than before last Tuesday. Tehran has learned from previous U.S. betrayals not to trust Trump. We know that Iran has been preparing for this war for decades and still retains a significant number of missiles and drones: 15,000 missiles, 45,000 drones and 50 percent of its launchers. In short, Tehran retains its finger on the trigger. Going further we can say that Iran’s operational control of the Strait of Hormuz and its accompanying global leverage make it a legitimate world power.
Fourth, Israel will do anything it can to wreck any negotiations that might lead to peace in the region. And in that vein it’s concerning that Kushner and Witkoff — both Israeli assets — will be accompanying Vance to Islamabad. Israel has always sought to control what was once “British Palestine” and will continue with its Project Greater Israel. In pursuit of this objective, Israel is now carpet bombing Beirut with over 100+ strikes just yesterday. Virtually every member of the Knesset is screaming “No ceasefire” and the slaughter of hundreds of Lebanese women and children is no doubt gratifying to them and ordinary Israelis. However, the reports I’ve seen indicate that the IDF is “getting its ass kicked”by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Most Americans still do not realize that this war happened SOLELY BECAUSE OF ISRAEL The Israeli lobby owns Congress and the Presidency and we must ask if this is the point when the U.S. divorces itself from Tel Aviv. BTW, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson believes that by 2030, Israel will no longer be a Jewish state but a democracy.
Fifth, the U.S. has 27 bases near Iranian territory that have been badly damaged or rendered uninhabitable. The local oligarchs — many of whom have fled to Riyadh or Europe — believed these bases would protect them but that has proven impossible. There fate remains unknown.
Finally, as Garland Nixon has suggested, it might behoove Iran to form a de facto military alliance with Russia and China. This could entail a few Russian and Chinese military outposts in Iran.