Be Skeptical: Trump Has Either Given in to Save Himself or Plays a New Two-week Game

These points seem to be in the mentioned 10-Point Iranian Plan that Trump’s message refers to:

1. A complete and final end to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran

A formal cessation of the current escalation cycle.

2. An end to Israeli military operations in Lebanon

This is one of the clearest points Al Jazeera highlighted — Iran wants a halt to Israeli action against Hezbollah.

3. A ceasefire in Gaza

Iran has consistently tied any de‑escalation to a halt in Gaza fighting.

4. Guarantees that the U.S. will restrain Israel from further regional escalation

This is a long‑standing Iranian demand.

5. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

This is the U.S. priority.

6. A framework for prisoner exchanges

This has appeared in multiple negotiation rounds in the past.

7. Sanctions relief or easing of specific financial restrictions

Not full JCPOA‑style relief, but targeted measures.

8. No U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure

Iran wants explicit guarantees that the U.S. will not attack power plants, bridges, or military sites.

9. A mechanism for regional de‑escalation involving Pakistan or Qatar as mediators

Pakistan’s involvement is widely reported

10. A roadmap for broader U.S.–Iran talks after the immediate crisis.

CNN reports that the ten points contain, among others, these:

It included regulating passage through the Strait of Hormuz; terminating attacks on Iran and its regional proxy forces; the withdrawal of US forces from the region; compensation to Iran; the lifting of international sanctions and unfreezing of assets; and a binding UN resolution to secure any ultimate peace deal.

The US also has a 15-point plan, about which CNN reports:

The full details of the 15-point US plan have not been published but it is believed to include: Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, handing over its highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, an end to regional proxy groups and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Other points on the table include an acknowledgment of Israel’s right to exist, the two regional sources said.

Whatever the true and total content, one must assume that one or more of all these are unacceptable to either Iran, the US and Israel, in various combinations.

This means, in my view:

  1. Iran will not open the Hormuz the way Trump makes it conditional: completely, immediately and safely.
  1. the war is not going to end soon, but may change character;
  1. most likely, Israel will not accept any of it – both for its content, Pakistan’s mediation without its participation, and how Trump expresses himself (he does not mention Israel);
  1. if Trump has given in because he recognises that his aggression was the miscalculation of his life (hard to believe that his personality permits that), every sane person will see it as a huge defeat for him and the US Empire – and a bizarrely counterproductive result of his tearing up the JCPOA;
  1. the issue of Iran’s nuclear technology and missiles – all among the reasons he started the war – are not mentioned in the ten points he refers to;
  1. should Israel find itself increasingly excluded, it will seek – if it can – to step up its relentless warfare. If it can’t, it cannot be excluded that it will use nuclear weapons at some point. A leadership that has no qualms about committing a genocide within an apartheid system and is already at war with Lebanon, Syria, Iran and – for obvious reasons – sees enemies everywhere around it because of its Greater Israel Plan, will not, if feeling cornered or existentially threatened, hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons on Iran;
  1. Israel’s status as the only nuclear weapons power in the Middle East – in violations of UN resolutions – is not mentioned in any of the 25 points;
  1. from a peace perspective, there is no larger framework and no external actors for future mediation outside the region; it is pure quackery by people, all the way around, whose focus is on military and ceasefire issues but know nothing about real conflict-resolution and peace-making.

In other words, do not for one second believe it when Trump uses capital letters “PEACE” twice; that is only to emphasise his perverse demand to get the Nobel “Peace” Prize.

Jan Oberg is a peace researcher, art photographer, and Director of The Transnational (TFF) where this article first appeared. Reach him at: oberg@transnational.org. Read other articles by Jan.